Jera Conde

Smart EOFY moves that balance tax planning and long-term goals

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As the end of the financial year approaches, many people turn their attention to tax planning opportunities. Reviewing contributions and considering deductions are common steps. But EOFY is also a useful moment to reflect more broadly on your financial position.

Tax outcomes matter. They are, however, only one part of a broader financial picture. Decisions made quickly at this time of year can carry longer-term implications, particularly when overall goals are not part of the conversation.

Looking beyond short-term tax outcomes

EOFY deadlines can create a sense of urgency. That urgency can push decisions toward immediate tax benefits rather than longer-term objectives. Building wealth, maintaining flexibility, and preparing for retirement all deserve a seat at the table too.

Keeping the bigger picture in focus

EOFY works well as a checkpoint. It’s a natural moment to step back and consider whether current strategies still align with longer-term priorities. That might mean reflecting on financial arrangements, investment approaches, or savings strategies to confirm they continue to support your evolving goals and circumstances.

Understanding the trade-offs

Most EOFY strategies involve trade-offs. Actions that reduce taxable income now may also lock funds away or reduce access to capital later. Recognising these dynamics helps put individual decisions into their proper context. A strategy that looks attractive in isolation may look different when you consider the full picture.

A balanced perspective

EOFY is better understood as part of an ongoing financial journey than as a last-minute deadline. A measured approach balances tax considerations with long-term thinking. Over time, that balance tends to produce more consistent and sustainable outcomes.

As the new financial year approaches, this period offers a genuine opportunity to reset and reflect. The goal is to ensure financial decisions remain aligned with what matters most, both now and into the future.

End of financial year planning checklist: What you should be doing now

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With the end of the financial year fast approaching, now is a great time to pause and take stock of your finances. A simple review now can help ensure you’re organised, informed, and ready for 30 June.

Get your financial information in order

Start by gathering your key documents. Pull together income details, bank statements, investment records, and any supporting paperwork. Having everything in one place makes tax time easier. It also gives you a clearer picture of your overall financial position.

Review your expenses and records

Go through your expenses and check that your records are complete and up to date. Gaps in record-keeping tend to surface at EOFY. Catching them now avoids unnecessary stress later.

Reflect on the past 12 months

Beyond the admin, EOFY is a valuable opportunity to check in on your standing. Has your income changed? Have you made new investments or adjusted your portfolio? Are your finances still aligned with your goals? A quick review can flag anything that needs attention before the year wraps up.

Review your investment activity

Look at any investment activity over the year. Note the income you received and any changes you made to your portfolio. A clear picture of this activity makes it easier to track performance and stay on top of your broader financial plan.

Prepare for the year ahead

EOFY isn’t just about closing out the year. It’s also about setting yourself up for what comes next. Reviewing where things stand now helps you step into the new financial year with greater clarity, confidence, and control.

Speak with your adviser

If you’re unsure where to start or want a better understanding of your current position, your adviser can help. Getting in touch before 30 June means there’s still time to act on anything that needs attention.

How do interest rates affect your finances?

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Interest rates play an important role in everyday financial life, influencing everything from your mortgage and savings to overall household spending.

When Rates Rise

When interest rates increase, borrowing typically becomes more expensive. This can lead to higher loan repayments, particularly for variable-rate mortgages, and may place additional pressure on household budgets.

You may also notice indirect effects. Higher borrowing costs can influence rental markets, business costs and the broader price of goods and services, meaning even those without loans may feel the impact.

Higher interest rates can also bring some positives. Savers may benefit from improved returns on savings accounts and term deposits, helping balances grow more quickly over time.

The overall effect of interest rate movements depends on your individual circumstances, particularly whether you are more impacted by borrowing costs or savings returns.

Why Interest Rates Change

Interest rates are adjusted to help manage the economy, particularly inflation, or the rising cost of living.

When inflation is higher, interest rates may increase to help slow spending. When conditions ease, rates may stabilise or decrease to support economic activity.

Taking the Long View

Interest rates will continue to move over time as part of normal economic cycles. While changes can create uncertainty in the short term, taking a broader view of your finances can help maintain confidence and stability.

Staying aware of how your finances are structured and how they respond to change can help you feel more in control, regardless of the environment.

Economic update: May 2026

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In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

  • Ceasefire talks drag on, but Wall Street has rebounded strongly
  • The RBA increased the cash rate to 4.35%, the third increase so far this year
  • Inflation spikes as oil prices jump
  • Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in both the US and Australia

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The big picture

The S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have each suffered two important setbacks during the Trump second term (to date). The first correction was a result of a poorly thought-out tariff policy for US imports. The S&P 500 bounced back from the April 4th 2025 delay in the reciprocal tariff implementation. The ASX 200 followed suit.

The S&P 500 charged up 37% while the ASX 200 gained a creditable 25%, to arrive at their February 2026 highs. These important gains were made while Trump policy uncertainty clouded the outlook.

The war between the US and Iran on the one hand, and Israel and Lebanon on the other, caused both indices to fall between 8% and 9% from February 27th before another strong retracement, especially on the part of the US index. That index rose 14% in a quicker retracement than that which followed the tariff uncertainties. The ASX 200 rose 6% in around the same time frame but it stalled from early April.

While there is some sort of ceasefire in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has largely been closed to shipping, trade that typically accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply in addition to key fertilizers and industrial chemicals.

The fact that both sets of strong recoveries occurred during a high degree of uncertainty suggests that the market was, and is, looking through these incidents to strong underlying fundamentals. Recent earnings reports in the US have been strong, and the AI boom is largely intact.

While most agree that the AI technology will be transformational, it is difficult to analyse the projected spend on data centres. No one realistically knows how much compute (yes, compute has become a noun replacing ‘computing power’) will be needed. There is also confusion about possible overlap and interaction among different company projections. There could be some important disruptions to these projections in years to come, but not yet, we think.

Another strong sign in market behaviour over ‘Trump 2.0’ is a rotation from the Magnificent 7 ‘mag 7’ US mega tech companies dominating market gains to a much broader-based rally. Even the Russell 2000 index, representing US small cap stocks, has also performed strongly in recent times.

There are two big takeaways from the last 12-15 months of market behaviour. Investors who were ill-prepared for what was to come possibly sold out in fear at the start of the two big drops in the indexes, and then possibly were too late into getting back into the market. They would have lost more compared to those that stood their ground.

The second takeaway is related to the first. Whatever we all thought about Trump being elected in November 2024, we have all learnt now that Trump is making far more erratic and frequent decisions than in his first term. We argued all along that the tariff policy was ill-advised and the US Supreme Court overturned a large part of that policy. Companies are now in the process of trying to claim back the taxes (tariffs are nothing but taxes) they were illegally charged.

General Motors (GM) is reportedly looking to claim back about 400-500 million dollars of tariff revenue. Jack Daniels, the iconic distillery, made substantial losses through its trade with Canada. When Trump threw around seemingly random numbers for new tariffs with Canada (and claiming Canada should be part of the US going forward), Canadians simply stopped buying the product in retaliation. There are surely many other cases of economic loss.

The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently claimed Trump had been exposed by Iran over his attack. As the adage goes, it is easy to invade a country, it is difficult to make a successful exit even if one had a plan. No one seems to be aware of Trump’s plan, if indeed he had one. Since Trump started the attack without consultation with possible allies, it would make no sense for other countries simply to follow Trump into battle. Allies need a co-ordinated, well-thought-out plan. When troops first invaded Kuwait in the first Gulf War, only 40% of those troops were American!

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Jerome Powell, said goodbye to the press corps after his final post-FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) media conference, but he emphasised he’s not leaving the Board of Governors yet. He vowed to stay on until the legal issues surrounding him have gone away. He promised to keep a low profile.

The Fed kept interest rates on hold at 3.50% to 3.75% in an 8-4 split vote. There have not been four dissensions in the voting since October 1992! However, only one person voted for a rate cut: Stephen Miran, Trump’s recent appointee. The other three dissenters wanted to remove the statement that the Fed was on an easing bias (in favour of a neutral stance) going forward. The Fed and markets are now in agreement about a multi-meeting period of interest rates being ‘on hold’.

Powell reiterated that he believes the US economy is experiencing solid growth and that the unemployment rate is low. The latest GDP growth number at the end of April for the March quarter 2026 was 2.0% (annualised) and 2.7% year-over-year.

Just before the FOMC decision was handed down, the Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair progress to the full Senate Committee for confirmation in the week of May 11. Warsh, as did Powell, argued that he will stand up to pressures from Trump.

The consensus seems to be that there may be no change in the Fed funds interest rate for the rest of this year. Powell thinks it is far too early to say how long the high global oil prices that have elevated inflation will continue. The Fed is watching inflation, tariffs and oil prices closely.

We think it is quite possible that the US labour market will start to worsen as the fiscal stimulus of the first half of 2026 subsides. Private sector jobs have not grown in six months. There is no problematic wage growth so demand pressures from the labour market are not the issue for inflation management.

What is particularly interesting is the fact that the US Treasury yields at 5, 10 and 30 years are all higher now than they were before the latest round of interest rate cuts, a total of 175 bps, took place from October 2024. The market determines the long-term rates that households and businesses pay and earn; the Fed only directly influences short-term interest rates at the front end of the yield curve.

While Powell is comfortable with US inflation being above 3% because of the supply-side dislocations (higher oil prices) that are elevating it, the same cannot be said for the RBA and Australian inflation. Our latest CPI Inflation came in at 4.6% which was up from 3.7% in the prior month. The so-called ‘trimmed mean’ that the RBA prefers was a more modest 3.3% and below the expected 3.5%.

The RBA increased its cash interest rate to 4.35%, the third interest rate increase at consecutive RBA meetings, going against the moves (or lack thereof) by other major central banks. Our cash interest rate at 4.35% is increasingly higher than the 3.5% to 3.75% in the US. Further, there is a strong market expectation that our rate will be 4.85% by the end of 2026. The RBA seems to be encouraging this view.

Powell thinks that the US interest rate is in the vicinity of a ‘neutral’ level, perhaps toward the upper end. If our interest rates get close to 5%, mortgagees will feel lots more pain on top of the reduction in spending power arising from the increases in petrol prices. These increases followed the global oil price shock and the lack of preparedness of the Australian government to have maintained adequate inventories of petrol to mollify such shocks.

The Federal Treasurer will hand down his budget in the second week of May. It seems that big changes will be made to cut expenditure from the NDIS which has grown like Topsy since it was introduced in 2016. At that time, it was hoped that the effect on the employment of formerly unpaid home helpers would have reduced the dependence on other government benefits. That reportedly has not happened with sufficient force. What started off as a $10bn per year scheme now costs over $50bn p.a.!

Government debt is headed towards one trillion dollars in two years. Twenty years ago, under Peter Costello’s stewardship, our debt was zero!

At last, the Treasurer has understood that taxing capital gains at anything like full income tax rates would be unfairly onerous as an allowance for inflation must be made for equity. It now seems Keating’s initial scheme, which taxed capital gains only above inflation at full income tax rates may now be restored. However, for lumpy assets like property, paying CGT on the full amount in the year that the sale is made would push many investors into higher tax brackets. Keating allowed averaging capital gains over five years to reduce this distortion.

The US-Iran and Israel-Lebanon (Hezbollah) wars are now entering their third month of conflict. Trump had initially speculated the conflict might be over in two weeks. The fall-out on US-Australia economic growth has not yet been significant but the impact on inflation has.

Consumer confidence has fallen, reflecting the impact of war, tariffs and inflation. The University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment recorded its lowest reading since data started being collected in 1952! All the economic and military problems in those 74 years did not make consumers feel worse, at least by that measure, as they feel now!

At home the Westpac consumer sentiment index fell sharply but it is not yet quite as bad as it was in the pandemic or the GFC, but it is not that much better! The NAB business confidence index also hit a low only beaten by the GFC sentiment in the last three decades. However, the NAB business conditions index held up quite well.

Households and businesses are functioning but their expectations for the future are very weak indeed. As a result, they might spend less to help save for a rainy day. If they do so save, then growth will suffer.

There have been some excellent results in the first quarter of company earnings reports on Wall Street. These results propelled the S&P 500 to finish April at a record close! Earnings’ expectations, as collected by LSEG, our data provider, are also holding up well for Australia.

If Pakistan and China can facilitate a resolution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the war more generally, the Australian and US economies could carry on for another good year in 2026. The growth in the creation of data centres in the US is a major factor in driving growth in the US and beyond. Government spending in both countries continues to be a fiscal stimulus that is working against monetary policy.

Asset classes

Australian equities

Australian equities (ASX 200) gained 2.2% in April, but that was insufficient to help the index achieve a positive year-to-date result. The loss y-t-d was -0.6%.

The Energy sector lost -2.7% in April on the back of a -3.7% loss in the price of Brent oil over the same period. The Materials sector, on the other hand, posted a strong gain of +4.3% over the month.

The gainers for the broader index were unusually mixed over April: IT (+13.3%), Property (+8.6%) and Financials (+2.9%), along with Materials, were the above-index leaders; Health (-8.7%), Staples (-4.7%), Utilities (-0.1%), and Energy recorded losses over April.

International equities

International shares also posted a wide range of capital gains over April. Japan’s Nikkei (+16.1%), the US S&P 500 (+10.4%), the German DAX (+7.1%), China’s Shanghai Composite (+5.7%) and Emerging Markets (+13.1%) all outperformed the ASX 200. The London FTSE (+2.0%) moved in line with our index.

Year-to-date, the Nikkei (+17.8%) and Emerging Markets (+15.1%) were the standouts among the indexes we follow more closely.

Bonds and interest rates

The Fed held its interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as widely anticipated. As the prospective new chair, Kevin Warsh, is to be ushered in on May 15, the voting at the April meeting offered him an opportunity to build a new consensus among the other 11 voting members. Eight members voted for staying on hold, while 4 dissented. Three of the dissenters wanted to remove ‘easing bias’ from forward guidance.

The CME Fedwatch tool has priced no change to the Fed funds interest rate over the rest of the year at 76.3%, with 7.0% being attributed to the chance of an interest rate increase. There is a 16.6% chance of one or more interest rate cuts.

The 30-year US Treasury yield finished April at 4.97%, rising back to a level that greatly disturbed markets after the announcement of the reciprocal tariff policy 12 months ago.

These movements of yields at the long end of the US yield curve show how misguided Trump has been in demanding the Fed cut its Fed funds (Cash) interest rate. The market, and not the Fed, largely dictates the level of long-term interest rates.

The cash rates for the Bank of Canada (2.25%), Bank of Japan (0.75%), Bank of England (BoE) (3.75%) and the ECB (2.0%), among others, were ‘on hold’ in April, but the BoE also had a split decision (8-1).

After increasing its interest rate to 4.35% in early May, the RBA is clearly out of step with the major central banks on both direction and level. It has flagged further interest rate increases, but all of its major developed-world central bank peers remain ‘on hold’ despite facing the same global inflation in oil prices.

Other assets

Brent Crude (-3.7%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (+3.6%) oil prices were more settled in April after aggressive increases in March.

The price of gold was flat (+0.1%) in April.

The price of iron ore rose +1.0% in April to consolidate a positive gain (+2.3%) for the y-t-d. The price of copper rose strongly in April by 5.4%.

The VIX US share market volatility index ended April almost in the normal range at 16.9 after peaking at 31.1 in the y-t-d.

The Australian dollar appreciated by +3.9% against the greenback over April, ending the month at $US0.7113. Our dollar traded for $US0.6693 at the start of 2026.

Regional review

Australia

The unemployment rate held firm at 4.3% in March. Total employment grew by 17,900, while full-time jobs grew by 52,500. Part-time job losses accounted for the difference.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ‘measured’ a 25.4% increase in electricity prices for the year to March because of the way in which it factored in the government rebates. The ABS equivalent measure without the rebate effect was only 3.9!

The monthly rebate-corrected change in March was 0.0% following a 1% change in February. We calculate that this dubious rebate correction adds about 0.5% to the headline CPI inflation rate, which was 4.6% for the year to March. We think the RBA should ignore the current impact of the war on CPI and leave interest rates on hold. Indeed, no other developed nation saw fit to react in this manner. The US has been explicit in its reasoning behind being on hold.

China

China reported +5.0% economic growth against an expected +4.5% and government guidance of +4.5% to +5.0% for the year.

Industrial output rose 5.7%, but retail sales growth fell short of expectations at 1.7%. Industrial profits surprised the market with 15.5% growth, but much of this was due to the revaluation effect on its substantial oil inventories amid the large increase in global oil prices.

United States

There were +178,000 jobs created in April, but this number was boosted by +35,000 returning strikers and a substantial number of workers laid off due to adverse weather. The average monthly job gain over the last 12 months was +25,300. The unemployment rate was 3.4% and wage growth was +0.2% for the month and +3.5% for the year.

GDP growth for the December quarter 2025 was revised downwards to +0.5% from +0.7% resulting in +2.1% for the year. Powell referred to current growth as ‘solid’. Just after that press conference, growth for the March quarter 2026 came in at 2.0% (annualised) and 2.7% for the year.

Core Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released with GDP growth, was 3.2%. While this figure is firmly above the Fed’s 2% target, the tariff inflation shock has yet to work its way through the system, and the effect of the oil price shock may still be increasing in magnitude.

Europe

EU inflation came in at 2.5%, up from 1.9%. UK growth was 1.0% for the year, but retail sales were at their lowest level since 1983.

The rest of the world

The Strait of Hormuz was only briefly opened for shipping between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. The US has blockaded Iranian ships from travelling to and from Iran.

It seems that the four leaders in the Middle East conflict are growing weary of the hostilities, but Iran has Trump on the back foot. With the US mid-term elections in November fast approaching, Trump needs a solution quickly to prevent the Republican Party from losing seats from their slim majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump has already claimed victory in the war, but few would agree with him!

Protecting what you’re building: How insurance supports a financial plan

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When people think about financial planning, investments and retirement often come to mind first. Insurance tends to receive less attention, yet it plays a crucial role in protecting the progress you have already made.

Insurance is not about expecting the worst. It is about being prepared for the unexpected, so a single event does not undo years of planning and effort.

Protection that supports progress

Life does not always follow a straight line. Illness, injury, or a temporary loss of income can place pressure on even the strongest financial plans. Insurance helps provide financial stability during these periods, allowing you to stay on track while you focus on recovery or navigating change.

When integrated properly, insurance supports long-term goals such as maintaining lifestyle, managing debt, and protecting family security. It works alongside investments and savings by reducing risks that could otherwise derail your plan.

Why reviews matter

Insurance needs often change as your life evolves. Career growth, family commitments, asset levels and financial responsibilities all influence the level of protection that is appropriate. What suited your circumstances in the past may no longer reflect your current needs.

Regular reviews help ensure insurance remains aligned with your broader financial plan and continues to support your goals effectively.

The role of advice

A financial adviser helps ensure insurance decisions are considered in the context of your overall financial position. The focus is not on products, but on outcomes, balance, and peace of mind.

Protecting more than assets

Ultimately, insurance is about protecting momentum. It helps safeguard your progress and provides confidence that your financial plan can withstand unexpected setbacks.

By treating insurance as a core part of your financial plan, you can continue building your future with greater confidence and certainty.

Confidence vs Certainty: How to Make Financial Decisions Without Knowing the Future

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When it comes to financial decisions, many people find themselves waiting for certainty. Certainty about markets, interest rates, government policy, or what life will look like in the years ahead. It’s understandable. Financial choices can feel significant, and no one wants to get things wrong.

The challenge is that certainty is rarely available. The future is always evolving. Confidence, however, doesn’t rely on having all the answers. It comes from having a plan that can adapt.

Confidence isn’t about being right all the time

Certainty is about prediction. Knowing exactly what will happen and when. Confidence is different. It’s about making thoughtful decisions based on what you know today, while accepting that change is inevitable.

Waiting for the perfect time or complete clarity often leads to inaction. Over time, this can delay progress, increase stress, and make future decisions feel harder rather than easier.

Confident financial decisions are usually built on a clear understanding of what matters most to you. They involve awareness of risks and trade-offs, and they are guided by a long term perspective rather than short term noise.

They don’t need to be perfect. They just need to be well considered.

The role of advice in building confidence

A key role of financial advice is helping people move forward when certainty is lacking. Advisers don’t predict the future, but they do help create structure and perspective so decisions aren’t made in isolation or driven by emotion.

Good advice helps ensure financial decisions remain aligned with long term goals, even as markets, rules and personal circumstances change over time.

Progress over prediction

Uncertainty is a natural part of financial life. Markets fluctuate, legislation evolves, and life rarely follows a straight line. A strong financial plan acknowledges this by focusing on progress rather than prediction.

If you find yourself waiting for certainty before acting, it may help to ask a different question.

What is a confident next step I can take based on what I know right now?

Often, that shift in thinking is what allows meaningful financial progress to begin.

What 2026 market volatility means for long‑term investors

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Markets have been a little bumpy so far in 2026, and it’s natural to notice when values move around more than usual. While this can feel unsettling, volatility is a normal part of investing, especially during periods of economic and interest‑rate uncertainty.

The important thing to remember is that short‑term market movements don’t define long‑term outcomes. Markets rarely move in straight lines, even in strong years. Periods of ups and downs are expected, and history shows that staying invested through them has been key to long‑term growth.

Well‑diversified portfolios are built with this in mind. They’re designed to manage volatility across different market conditions, rather than react to day‑to‑day headlines. For long‑term investors, this structure becomes even more valuable when markets are unsettled.

Volatility can also create opportunity. When markets pull back, investors may be buying quality assets at lower prices, particularly through regular contributions or rebalancing, which can support long‑term returns over time.

The biggest risk during volatile periods is making decisions based on emotion. Trying to time the market or stepping aside after a downturn can make it harder to benefit when markets recover.

In years like 2026, a steady, disciplined approach remains the most reliable path forward. Staying focused on your goals, your timeframe and your strategy rather than short‑term noise is what matters most.

Market volatility in 2026 is a reminder that investing can be uncomfortable in the short term, but rewarding over the long term. Staying focused on your goals and maintaining a steady approach remains key.

Scams, AI and financial safety: how to protect yourself in 2026

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Managing money has never been more digital, and in many ways, more convenient. But as technology advances, so too do the methods used by scammers. In 2026, artificial intelligence is playing a growing role in financial crime, making scams more sophisticated, more personal and harder to detect than ever before.

For investors and everyday Australians alike, understanding how scams are evolving is an important part of protecting your financial wellbeing.

AI has changed the way scams look and sound. Messages that once contained obvious spelling errors or generic language are now being replaced with highly polished emails, realistic text messages and even phone calls that can mimic trusted organisations or familiar voices. Some scams reference real events, recent transactions or publicly available information, which can make them feel legitimate at first glance.

This sophistication means that even cautious people can be caught off guard. Scammers are no longer relying on volume alone, they are relying on credibility.

Despite the technology behind them, many scams still share common traits. They often create a sense of urgency, encouraging you to act quickly to avoid a problem or secure an opportunity. You may be told there is suspicious activity on your account, that a payment needs to be confirmed immediately, or that a limited‑time investment opportunity is about to close.

These pressure tactics are deliberate. When people feel rushed or anxious, they are more likely to act before stopping to question what’s really going on.

Protecting yourself doesn’t require technical expertise, but it does require slowing down. Being cautious with unexpected emails, texts or phone calls is one of the simplest and most effective safeguards. Avoid clicking links or downloading attachments unless you’re certain of the source, and never share personal details, passwords or verification codes, no matter how convincing the request may seem.

If a message claims to come from a bank, government agency or financial provider, it’s always safer to contact them directly using details you already trust, rather than responding to the message itself. Taking a few extra minutes to verify a request can prevent months or even years of financial stress.

Your financial adviser can also play an important role in protecting you. If something doesn’t feel right whether it’s a communication you’ve received or an investment opportunity that seems unusually urgent or complex, checking before acting can make all the difference. An experienced adviser can help identify red flags and provide reassurance when something is legitimate.

As technology continues to evolve, so will scam tactics. Staying informed, sceptical of unexpected requests and comfortable asking questions are key to protecting your financial wellbeing. If you ever have concerns about a communication or financial request, it’s worth pausing and seeking advice before taking action.

Economic update: March 2026

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In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

  • US Supreme Court rules Trump’s reciprocal Tariffs not legal
  • RBA raises interest rates on strong inflation data
  • US growth slows in the December quarter
  • Iran situation destabilising markets, oil prices rise

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

For 11 months since the announcement of the US ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’ on April 2nd, disruption to international trade and monetary policy has followed. Trump’s tariff policy was sent to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) for a ruling. That ruling has been returned in the negative but there are still many questions to answer.

Taxes and tariffs (which are taxes on imports) are ordinarily ruled upon by Congress. Trump didn’t go that route. Instead, he found rulings that he judged would allow him to raise tariffs without congressional backing.

The big reciprocal tariff that is central to Trump’s economic and trade policy was written as an ‘executive order’ (meaning Trump could make a decision without congressional assent) based on his view that various trade deficits caused an economic emergency for the US. The so-called International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) law Trump invoked was found by SCOTUS to be invalid in this case. A vast swathe of tariffs were found to be illegal.

Many of Trump’s other tariffs were based on invoking other laws and, for the moment at least, they stand. SCOTUS left it to lower courts to deliberate on how the illegal tariffs should be refunded. Almost certainly, that likely means there will be drawn out litigation to resolve the repayments issues.

SCOTUS in effect gave a green light to replacing the reciprocal tariffs by a global tariff. The law under which such tariffs can be operated limits the tariff to a maximum of 15% and for a maximum period of 150 days. Congressional agreement is required for extensions past 150 days.

Almost immediately, Trump imposed a ‘10% global tariff’. Within the same day, Trump said he was raising the tariff to 15% but no signed document appears yet to have been lodged. Clearly, Trump is trying to remain resolute and empowered in dealing with US trading partners.

There is no consensus on how Trump might go about rebating the illegally collected tariffs. Apparently, consumers cannot claim for a refund even though much of the tariffs were passed on to them as price increases. Companies can claim but they may need to show what, if any, tariffs were passed on as they can only claim for their own economic loss.

Along the way, many countries ‘negotiated’ with Trump to get a lower tariff than his initial demand. Given that the SCOTUS ruling invalidates many of the US-side of these agreements, it is not clear whether the US trading partners are held by the agreement. The European Union (EU) is reportedly reconsidering its obligations.

What makes resolving this tariff cancellation and replacement by other tariffs important is that Trump is facing the ‘mid-term’ elections later in the year. He is trying to show that he can improve ‘affordability’ for Americans. The 150-day limit of the 10% global tariffs occurs at the end of July, just as campaigning will be getting up to full speed.

If the Republican Party loses seats in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate, Trump will find it even harder to get his way in Congress. Apparently, there are six Republicans ready to vote against Trump’s wishes even without losing seats.

We can only speculate how this year will play out but one possibility is that the trade chaos will get worse after November. Trump will not have substantial assets to redistribute from the tariffs collected. Earlier, he was even talking about replacing income taxes by tariffs.

Trump also launched substantial fiscal stimulus from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ (BBB). Meanwhile, US Treasury debt is mounting and hurtling towards $40 trillion.

Trump presumably thinks that if he could get the Fed to cut its rate to around 1%, other rates would follow. The cost of funding National Debt would then be massively reduced. The trouble is interest rates on longer term loans – like home mortgages – are largely unrelated to the Fed funds interest rate.

The six Fed interest rate cuts so far in this easing cycle have happened with hardly any impact on the yield of 10-year bonds – and longer-term debt. Moreover, if the Fed funds interest rate was cut to 1%, there would be lots of cheaper capital that might fund poor investments as in other times when ‘loose’ monetary policy prevailed.

Trump repeatedly argues jobs and the economy in general are strong. While the US is not close to a recession (at the moment), jobs data are steadily weakening. A twelve-month average of past new jobs data has fallen steadily from around 200,000 per month at the start of 2024 to just over 20,000 at the start of 2026.

It is true that the unemployment rate has not gone back to the high levels experienced in the past. However, the unemployment rate is much higher than a year or two ago. It is now 4.1% but it was 3.5% in mid-2023. And the nature of work has changed in recent times with work-from-home and the proliferation of home delivery services and ride-shares redefining the ability for people to find new jobs.

The Fed, like the RBA, has a dual mandate: to maintain price stability and full employment. Inflation rose sharply in the pandemic, not because of poor monetary policy but because of supply chain constraints; the Ukraine-Russia conflict; lockdowns and the like. As those factors diminished, questions were asked about whether monetary policy should be tighter to prevent ‘supply side’ inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. Some questioned if the Fed and the RBA put interest rates up too slowly.

In the US, there was an evident problem with the ‘shelter’ component of the basket of goods and services in the CPI inflation measure. It is a very large component of the CPI and rents, which are used to proxy many other housing variables, is hard to characterise well. Rents are typically set for a period of say a year or more in a leasing agreement. And it is hard to compare the rent for one property with that for another.

Shelter inflation was very slow to broadly return to the level of pre-covid times – from a peak of 8% in early 2023 to just over 3% now. On top of that, the government shutdown caused gaps in the sampling process in collecting data on rents. We found that CPI-inflation-less-shelter – a statistic collected and published by the official data agency – got down to 1.1% in mid-2024. That is, inflation was controlled below the 2% target in all but shelter (rents).

When tariffs started to be applied a year ago, economists speculated on what the impact would be on the CPI inflation measure. Because very large tariffs of 100% and more were being talked about, and Trump kept adding new tariffs to his wish list, no one could reasonably keep abreast of the possible impact of tariffs on the CPI. Some eminent economists argued that the CPI might be lifted by about 0.5% to 1%. CPI less shelter inflation peaked at 2.7% in 2025 which is consistent with that conservative economic view. However, some saw inflation continuing to build up and feared a return of sustained high inflation. CPI inflation reached 3.0% (including shelter) but it has already returned to 2.4%.

With the labour market as we have just characterised it, we think it would be appropriate to keep easing monetary policy. Of course, Trump had been berating – almost trying to humiliate – Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, into cutting rates faster and further. Possibly as a result, the Fed took a conservative approach to easing. While we think the Fed could have cut a little faster, we do not think the Fed’s actions have caused significant damage to the US economy.

What is clear, is that cutting or raising rates does not affect all goods and services to the same extent. Changing the prime interest rate is a blunt tool. The market thinks there might be two or three more cuts of 0.25% points in the remainder of this calendar year.

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell, but the Senate has not yet considered that proposal. Warsh seems like an eminently sensible prospect to chair the Fed. Several others of the potential nominees did not seem as appropriate.

The RBA increased its OCR (official cash rate) at the start of February. It was the first major central bank to reverse its interest rate cutting cycle to one of tightening. We are not supportive of this move. At the heart of the problem is the construction of the CPI. The federal and state governments gave various subsidies to households to compensate them for escalating electricity prices. While we agree that it was a good and timely policy, the manner in which the ABS processed that data is questionable.

We have conducted a detailed, rigorous analysis of the construction of the ‘rebate-adjusted’ electricity-price index and, hence, the CPI. We are confident that much of the recent talk of inflation spikes and the like is largely due to an inappropriate adjustment – or calculation. We think that the RBA should not have hiked and indeed should have continued with its cutting cycle.

Because of the nature of the ABS calculation, we predict that for the rest of this year annual electricity price inflation statistics will be much higher than should be the case.

The essence of the problem is that the ABS treated a flat dollar value of a rebate as a price change. It is not. The fall in the electricity price index was sharp in the beginning because the rebate was large. But then there is a consequential bigger increase in imputed inflation as the rebates ended. The only hope we have is that a member of the RBA has flagged the need to look at alternative CPI measures.

An additional fly-in-the-ointment for Australia is that the latest monthly jobs numbers looked a bit big. We agree but these numbers bounce around quite a lot. We focus on the annual growth rate in jobs (total, full-time, and part-time). The growth rates have been smooth and stable. Total employment is only growing at 1.0% pa and full-time at 1.2% pa when the population usually runs at around 1.6% pa. Job creation is not keeping up with population growth.

While news has been plentiful, including bad news, markets have largely brushed aside such issues. The ASX 200 and the S&P 500 have been fluctuating near their all-time highs during February.

Bond markets have also settled down with the US 10-year Treasury getting below 4.0% when it was 4.5% about a year ago. The 10-year yield at 4.5% and 5.0% for the 30-year yield triggered stock market instability in mid-2025.

And February ended with a joint missile attack by the US and Israel on Tehran in which the Iranian leader was killed. It is not possible to predict what effect on markets this conflict will have but it is reasonable to assume that there will be more volatility until a clearer picture emerges.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

Australian equities (ASX 200) performed strongly in February, rising +3.7% bringing 2026 year-to-date gains to +5.7%. The broad index achieved an all-time high close of 9,199 on the last day of February.

The materials and financials sectors were the stand-out performers gaining +9.0% and +8.6%, respectively, last month. On the other hand, the health sector lost -13.4% over the same period.

International Equities

The S&P 500 also performed strongly in February. The index rose to within 3 points of the all-time high close of 6,979 but it did lose -0.9% over the month. Some of that loss is attributable to the big reaction to Nvidia’s earnings report at the end of the month. It seems likely that the heavy sell-off was due to profit taking as the company beat expectations of earnings, revenue, and forward guidance.

Japan’s Nikkei rose +10.4% in February as part of the reaction to the election of new prime minister, Takaichi, who now governs with a two-thirds majority in the lower house.

UK’s FTSE (+6.7%), the German DAX (+3.0%) and Emerging Markets (+4.9%) also performed well in February.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The yields on US Treasurys slipped over the month. The 10-year bond yield ended February at 3.96% and the 30-year bond yield at 4.63%, well below the 4.5% and 5.0% experienced after the launch of the reciprocal tariffs, that then caused equity markets to tumble.

The CME Fedwatch tool has assigned a probability of 6.4% for the Fed to cut interest rates at its next meeting on March 18th. Despite this, there is only a 3.9% chance of there being no interest rate cuts this year. There is a 30.9% chance that there will be two cuts this year and a 28.7% probability that there will be three interest rate cuts.

Since a new Fed chair should be sworn in by the Senate before Powell’s term ends in May, the expected path of the Fed funds rate might undergo some volatility as the new Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) settles in.

We can understand why the RBA raised its interest rate by 0.25% points to 3.85% on February 3rd. The published inflation rate of 3.8% looked a little disturbing. However, we feel that the ABS inflation data has been corrupted by an inappropriate calculation concerning electricity price inflation embedded in the CPI formula, which, if relied upon by the RBA, could result in additional upward pressure on interest rates.

The Governor of the RBA, Michele Bullock, stated in the media conference following the February interest rate hike that “the labour market is strong” and that government spending had also contributed to inflationary pressure, a notion Treasurer Chalmers sought to defuse.

The Bank of England and the ECB each kept their rates on hold at 3.75% and 2.15% respectively.

Other Assets

Brent Crude (+2.5%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (+2.8%) oil prices were up in February.

The prices of silver and Bitcoin fell sharply in one day during February. Any notion that Bitcoin is a store of value went out of the window. Bitcoin was valued at over $US120,000 in October and is now under $US70,000.

The price of gold rose +4.4% over February, but it took a one-day hit when silver and Bitcoin prices slumped.

The price of iron ore fell -5.0% and copper rose +1.7% in February.

The Australian dollar appreciated by +1.7% against the US dollar over February ending the month at $US0.7126. Our dollar traded for $US0.6693 at the start of 2026 and $US0.6550 at the start of FY26. Much of the strength in our dollar has been gained from the weakness of the US dollar.

Regional Review

Australia

The ABS reported that there were 17,800 jobs created in January of which 50,500 were full-time positions. In growth terms, total employment grew by +1.0% over 12 months while full-time positions grew by +1.2%. Total and full-time jobs grew by less than 1.6% in each of the last six months. We take 1.6% as a reference point for long-term population growth. Job creation is not keeping up with population growth which goes against RBA Governor Bullock’s claim at the interest rates decision media conference that the labour market is strong.

CPI inflation for January was 3.8%. Electricity price inflation, after applying questionable compensations for government energy subsidies, came in at +18.5% for the month and 32.2% for the year. The comparable data for inflation without the rebate adjustment (also published by the ABS) were 0.0% and 4.5%, respectively. Because electricity prices play a big part in the CPI, the difference between 32.2% and 4.5% as alternative estimates of electricity price inflation is more than enough to move the needle on the outcome for the CPI to 3.8% from a much more reasonable estimate. The ABS do not publish the weight given to electricity in the CPI so that we cannot calculate the effect of these two electricity price inflation estimates.

Even if one could mount an argument for going along with the adjusted data, there is no argument for raising the interest rate to combat inflation. The electricity-price adjustment is locked in for a year no matter what interest rate setting is chosen.

The quarterly wage price index was released in February for the December quarter, 2025. Wages grew by +0.8% for the quarter and +3.4% for the year. When we take out CPI inflation to get what economists call the ‘real wage’, inflation-adjusted wages grew by -0.2% over the year. The real wage is -6.2% below what it was in mid-2022. Not only are workers more than 6% behind what they were nearly four years ago, there has been a cumulative loss. To restore living standards to that in mid-2022, workers need to have wage inflation in the current quarter to exceed CPI inflation by about 6%.

China

China stood up to the US over tariffs, and with the new SCOTUS ruling, that seems to have validated their action.

China CPI inflation did fall to 0.2% for the year from 0.8%.

United States

The SCOTUS ruling on tariffs puts a big dampener on Trump’s policies. He vows to make some ‘small changes’ to the current illegal tariffs to produce the same end. That seems very unlikely.

Essentially, the US government has been collecting illegal tariff revenue largely from US consumers and companies and will have to return some of it – no doubt after extensive litigation. Any new tariffs will only last for 150 days without Congressional approval.

It seems likely that the ‘deals’ Trump struck with trading partners will fall by the wayside. He has already committed through the Big Beautiful Bill large payments with no compensatory funding. The Government debt will likely grow even faster to $US40 trillion. There seems to be no appetite on the part of the Trump administration to control the debt.

US GDP growth fell to 1.42% (annualised) for the December quarter but growth was affected by the government shutdown. Dow forecast 2.4% growth (both figures annualised).

Jobs growth looked strong – at 130,000 new jobs in January when 55,000 had been expected. However, a rolling 12-month average of new jobs has been sinking for years. The latest 12-month figure is a little over 20,000 new jobs per month.

Europe

UK inflation cooled to 3.0% in January from 3.4%. UK unemployment rate came in at 5.2% – the highest since early 2021. Britain’s GDP growth was 0.1%.

France’s unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in the December quarter, 2025 from 7.7% in the September quarter.

Rest of the World

Japan’s economy seems to have bounced back with new vigour after the election of a new prime minister with now a big majority in the lower house. Japan’s inflation did fall to 1.5% from 2.1%.

Japan’s exports were at a three-year high of 17% against expectations of a 12% increase. They were up strongly from the previously reported 5.1%.